RESUMO
Current methods of dam breach analyses adopt a deterministic approach. Applying these methods to Concrete Faced Rockfill Dams (CFRD) is fraught with huge levels of uncertainty, especially in the context of natural hazards. The frequency and magnitude of rainfall and earthquakes are higher in today's world. In the literature, the complete collapse of dams is modelled on dam breach parameters that define the dam break outflow but are not related to the return periods of natural hazards. As more new dams are constructed to control the floods in intra-plate seismic regions, this study presents a novel approach to the derivation of generalized dam break parameters for CFRD based on the structural analysis of Finite Element Model (FEM) simulations for peak ground accelerations corresponding to 475 and 2475 year return periods. Furthermore, the occurrence of rainfall and earthquake for different return periods are modelled using 2D hydrodynamic simulations. Results show the significance of generalized dam breach parameters for planning and managing CFRDs during earthquakes. The study emphasizes the utilization of structural analysis outputs for the hydraulic modeling of dam breaks, which will result in more specific and accurate dam break parameters. Additionally, the study has shown that the flood risk and the severity will increase with the intensity of earthquake and rainfall magnitudes. Disaster mitigation strategies can be optimized by considering the integrated occurrence of rainfall and earthquakes based on the probability of occurrence, demonstrated using a case-study dam. Another significant outcome of the study is the effect of soil saturation condition during a dam break, which reveals that areas within 40 km of the dam breach location might be worst affected.
